International Monetary Fund lowers global growth outlook for 2019 to 3.3%

International Monetary Fund lowers global growth outlook for 2019 to 3.3%

In 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a growth rate of 6.3 per cent for China and 6.1 per cent in 2020, according to the latest World Economic Outlook projections released ahead of the annual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The global lender said it was slightly boosting its outlook for Chinese growth this year - to 6.3% - in part because it had expected an escalation in the US-China trade war which did not materialise.

"This is a delicate moment" for the global economy, Gita Gopinath, who recently became the IMF's chief economist, said at a press briefing in Washington.

"This may require synchronized, country-specific policy stimulus across economies, complemented by accommodative monetary policy", Gopinath said.

The next year growth rate forecast by the fund was in line with 2.7 percent growth rate projected by the World Bank earlier.

The IMF projected consumer inflation at 7.6 percent in 2019 and 7 percent in 2020 compared with 3.9 percent in 2018.

It left its forecast for 2020 unchanged at 3.6 percent predicated on a rebound in Argentina and Turkey, along with an improvement in other stressed emerging markets and developing economies.

It blamed the slowdown on the trade spat and tariff hikes between the U.S. and China, besides "a decline in business confidence, a tightening of financial conditions, and higher policy uncertainty across many economies".

One potential misstep lies in Britain's indecision over how to leave the EU.

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Also, the Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, said low and middle income countries that rely mostly on oil could experience additional public financial stress following dwindling oil prices.

The IMF said the economic growth in this region is expected to decline to 1.5% in 2019, before recovering to about 3.2% in 2020.

The IMF said the Bank of England should be "cautious" on interest rate policy, an apparent tip to wait before hiking.

On April 1, Zhang Ping, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China's GDP growth should remain at 6.2 percent in the first half, and average 6.3 percent for the whole year, thanks to incentives including tax and fee cuts.

According to the International Monetary Fund outlook the economy of Pakistan will grow by 2.8 percent in the next fiscal year.

He had said, "How can we be growing at 7 per cent and not have jobs".

Ms Gopinath doesn't expect a global recession, but said that there are "many downside risks".

The euro area is likely to slow sharply, particularly in Germany, where the GDP forecast was cut by a half point, and Italy, which has slowed to a virtual standstill, according to the quarterly report. Its growth for 2019 and 2020 was cut by 0.1 percent each. China should prefer on-budget fiscal measures to support growth if needed rather than rolling back the deleveraging process because doing so "would accumulate vulnerabilities for the long run", Milesi-Ferretti said. Growth in Canada is expected to pick up to 1.9 per cent by then. China responded with retaliatory tariffs on USA goods.

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